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Subject: Thesis advice regarding five-year trend of decreasing attendance at Final Four
Posted by: UVAWahooo11 on Mon Jul 9 2012 3:12:27 PM
Message:

Posted on the Corner as well, just trying to illicit as many responses as
possible.

I am finishing up a graduate program at Georgetown in Sports
Management and needed some advice regarding my thesis. It is on the
incongruence between the growth of lacrosse and a five-year trend of
decreasing attendance at the Final Four (rose every year from 2002-
2007, dipped every year from weekend high of 123,000 in 2007 to
79,000 in 2012), offering solutions to bolster sport's showcase weekend.
There are factors contributing to this decline that are not unique to
lacrosse, such as the economy and the HDTV boom, but I wanted to
focus on things the NCAA could control to ensure a more highly
attended event. Note, my recommendations will be as if in consultation
with NCAA. They will aim to both increase revenue/attendance for
NCAA/host rather than focusing on how to grow the game (not NCAA
prerogative).

Preliminary research includes:

Rising participation:
-According to US Lacrosse Participation Survey: 2002: 288,000 lacrosse
players, 2007: 480,000 (50% youth, 39% high school, 6% college; 30%
female), 2011: 685,000 players (percentage of players coming from
each level of play was consistent with 2007, 38% female)

Economy/Attendance:
-Percentage of personal consumption on sports at highest level since
1996 (http://www.wrhambrecht.com/pdf/SportsMarketReport_2012.pdf)
-Attendance at comparable event such as CWS and Frozen Four has
only slightly fall, if at all during 2008-2012 timeframe
-Regular season lacrosse attendance has been steady the last ten years

HDTV Boom:
-Need TV ratings of NCAA Lacrosse Final Four over last ten years or
so. Have contacted ESPN with no luck--any advice on how to dig up?
-More than 70 NCAA games on TV in 2012 versus 30 or so in 2007

Lacrosse specific:

-Pace of play: goals/game are actually up over last five years, contrary
to popular belief. Considered offering solutions to speed of pace of play,
but no direct correlation of increased possessions/game to attendance
(see MLL).

-Relationship between NCAA and venue: would like to focus on this, but
lack a lot of info/RFP knowledge necessary to make educated
recommendation. Basic structure of contract is thus: venue pays
guarantee to secure event, NCAA limits rent to $250k, excess revenue
above guarantee is shared 80% NCAA, 20% to host.

-Ticketing: huge issue here IMO. When NCAA saw huge attendance
growth, ticket prices soared as economy went south. Can't buy single
session ticket until day-of-game, otherwise forced to buy three-day
package.

-Size of venues: hosted in NFL Stadium since 2003. Allure of playing in
NFL stadium seems to have worn off since many mid-season classics
are held throughout regular season. With highest attended single game
just over 50,000 in 2008, Is there an advantage of playing in a venue
that would near a sell-out?

-Location: Research shows the lacrosse fan (generally) will not travel
beyond three hours to see the championship weekend. With only three
locations in Baltimore, Foxborough, and Philly, should the NCAA use
one venue like the CWS, keep current small rotation, or look into
developing markets (ie Denver)?

I am struggling with the methodology, or how to draw specific
conclusions given somewhat limited data and what I'd like to produce--
marketing plan for NCAA seems most likely, possibly with revised
parameters in RFP. Any advice/resources/direction would be greatly
appreciated.

Current Thread:

   Thesis advice regarding five-year trend of decreasing attendance at Final Four  --  UVAWahooo11   Mon Jul 9 2012 3:12:27 PM
      Put in a special under 16 yrs ticket price for sure.  --  HOOGATORB   Mon Jul 9 2012 6:05:51 PM
      Get the Cuse back in the final four! Baltimore should be the site.  --  HOOGATORB   Mon Jul 9 2012 5:52:46 PM
         I'd like to see it in Philly again **  --  hokieh8r   Mon Jul 9 2012 8:57:17 PM
            Keep it in B'more and Philly only. NO MORE BOSTON! **  --  HowieT3   Mon Jul 9 2012 9:17:25 PM
               This ^. Foxborough isn't even convernient to Boston  --  Fitz-Hoo   Wed Jul 11 2012 11:26:34 AM
               +2 **  --  HoosQ   Tue Jul 10 2012 10:39:21 AM

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